The Brown Bounce

Drop a turd from high enough and it will bounce. The Brown bounce could well have passed its peak now with the Conservatives regaining on him according to some polls. Brown was only ever going to get one 'thank god Blair is gone' bounce and he knows it, so if the main thrust of it is over then so are the prospects of an early election. Gordon Brown is caucious, as can be seen by the amount of time he left and the number of opportunities that he ignored for sticking the knife into Blair. Like all politicians he also has a deep beleif in his own abilities and is deeply competetive and knows that during the next election he will be compared to the Blair, the great election winner, and does not want to come out looking second best now he finally has his place in the sun. He will want to call an election at the absolutely optimum time for him, and if an early election no longer looks like that then he will not call it he does theorically have until 2010. Three years of Brown, how could they not learn to love him? That will be what he will think. The next set of polls should be better for Brown, if only because of regression to the mean, but with luck this is the beginning of a downward trend as the honeymoon period fades away.

As the chance of an early election fades the chance of a referendum on the EU Constitution Reform Treaty increase. Had their been an early election then Gordon could easily have taken his mandate for signing the treaty from winning that knowing full well that by putting it in his manefesto would mean that the Conservatives would have to campaigne against him on that issue returning them to their old election losing image that Cameron has worked so hard to get rid of. The general view in the country is consistently anti-EU, but this is also consistently overshadowed by other issues.